No swing, surprise or change in equations

BJP candidate from Amristsar Union Minister Hardeep Singh Puri.

With AAP belying the promise of 2014 and SAD-BJP still facing the wrath of voters, Congress seems to be on a strong wicket

In the 2014 Lok Sabha election, the “Modi wave” failed to sweep across Punjab, which unexpectedly surged towards the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). The fledgling party won more seats than the Congress and the BJP, traditional rivals in the State.

With a 24.4% vote share, the AAP won four of the 13 Lok Sabha seats in the State. The Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) won four seats with a 26.4% vote share and its alliance partner, the BJP, won two with 8.6%. The Congress with 33% won just three.

However, in the 2017 Gurdaspur byelection, necessitated by the death of BJP MP Vinod Khanna, Congress candidate Sunil Jakhar won handsomely.

Defying logic

The AAP’s performance in Punjab, in fact, raised questions among political experts and analysts about the ways the party defied conventional wisdom in electoral politics.

“The party lacked the prerequisites widely accepted as essential for electoral success such as a strong organisational structure, resources, traditional social support base, established State-level leadership and a coherent agenda or ideology, to be viewed as a credible alternative. Also, there was the lack of the winnability factor going against the party. Yet the party won four seats, which was phenomenal,” said Ashutosh Kumar, Professor of Political Science at Panjab University.

The AAP in 2014 raised critical issues such as the drug menace, corruption and nepotism in the State. The party presented itself as a viable alternative in Punjab, which had only seen rivalry between the the Congress and the SAD-BJP since 1997.

Assembly sweep

Later, the 2017 Assembly election in Punjab saw a triangular contest and the AAP emerged as the principal Opposition party.

The Congress swept the election and formed the government, ending the 10-year regime of the SAD-BJP.

As the 2019 Lok Sabha election draws closer, things are different for the AAP, with many of its founding leaders having quit and a virtual split in the leadership of its Punjab unit. Trouble started after Dharamvira Gandhi and Harinder Khalsa, MPs, were suspended from the party in August 2015, as they challenged the central leadership.

Senior leader and MLA Sukhpal Khaira resigned from the party earlier this year and floated the Punjabi Ekta Party. Senior legislators H.S. Phoolka and Baldev Singh have quit the party.

 

Leadership challenge

The SAD, which is battling internal crises after the party’s old guard revolted against president Sukhbir Singh Badal, son of former Punjab Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal, is currently facing a leadership challenge.

“The allegations against the party leadership’s complicity in getting the Akal Takht to pardon Ram Rahim of Dera Sacha Sauda, besides charges of failure to check the sacrilege cases and Kotkapura-Behbal Kalan police firing incidents of 2015 during their (SAD-BJP) regime could still hurt the party support,” Mr. Ashutosh said.

For the ruling Congress, the election will be a test of its performance during the two-year of rule in the State.

Ronki Ram, Dean at the Department of Social Science at Panjab University, said, “This time along, there is no enthusiasm towards the AAP on the ground. Many people are still annoyed with the SAD-BJP for the alleged misdeeds during their regime. Even the recent cross-border air strike in Balakot is unlikely to help the SAD-BJP. Against this backdrop, the ruling Congress seems to be the gainer as the anti-incumbency factor is unlikely to play a major role against the government.”